---
title: "Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ebola-new-country-confirmed-before-october-1
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-10-03T11:34:56+00:00
total_volume_usd: 359.3
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:29:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ebola-new-country-confirmed-before-october-1
---

# Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?

Settled · $359 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

**No** won. Settled 2026-10-03.

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.

A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/244391?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ebola-new-country-confirmed-before-october-1.

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