---
title: "ECB rate cut in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 35871.69
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Markets", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:24:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026
---

# ECB rate cut in 2026?

Live · $35,872 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |
| Yes | 4% | 5¢ on Polymarket | 5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6097?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026.

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