---
title: "Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 824771.43
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:18:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by
---

# Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

Live · $824,771 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.

Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.

Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4.2¢ on Polymarket | 4.2¢ |
| No | 96% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |

## Other markets

- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312192?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by.

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