---
title: "Fearnley vs Kozlov"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/fearnley-vs-kozlov
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-09T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-16T22:05:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-10T17:24:56+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3998632.1
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:00:10+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fearnley-vs-kozlov
---

# Fearnley vs Kozlov

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-09 00:00 UTC · $3,998,632 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Jacob Fearnley** won. Settled 2026-07-10.

## About

This market covered the ATP Challenger Newport Round of 16 tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov, originally scheduled for July 9, 2026. On Polymarket, the market resolved to whichever player advanced, with special rules for cancellations, walkovers, or retirements. On Kalshi, the market tracked whether Fearnley would win after a ball had been played. Both platforms listed the event, with Kalshi drawing the bulk of the volume at roughly $3.38M compared with Polymarket's $594K.

Pricing across venues converged almost entirely on Fearnley. Polymarket implied a 99.8% probability of a Fearnley win, while Kalshi had him at 99.0%, a cross-platform spread of just 0.80 points. Kozlov sat at 1.0% on Kalshi and 0.1% on Polymarket, a 0.90-point gap. Polymarket's binary Yes/No framing showed Yes at 100.0% and No at 0.1%.

Fearnley was the overwhelming favourite by nearly 99 points, signalling the market treated a Kozlov upset as a remote tail scenario. The cross-platform takeaway: Polymarket and Kalshi agreed closely on the outcome, with only marginal differences in how confidently each priced the near-certain Fearnley win.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Completed Match — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/16590?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/17100?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fearnley-vs-kozlov.

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