---
title: "Fearnley vs Wolf"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/fearnley-vs-wolf
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-31T14:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-24T20:29:49+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3714554.12
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:46:09+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fearnley-vs-wolf
---

# Fearnley vs Wolf

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-24 00:00 UTC · $3,714,554 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Jacob Fearnley** won. Settled 2026-07-24.

## About

This market covers the quarterfinal clash between J.J. Wolf and Jacob Fearnley at the 2026 ATP Challenger Bloomfield Hills — a hard-court event in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan that is part of the ATP Challenger Tour and was upgraded to a Challenger 125 in 2026. Markets resolve in favour of whichever player advances; Kalshi frames it as a Yes/No on a Fearnley win, while Polymarket offers a straight head-to-head choice.

Wolf is the commanding favourite at 74.0% on Kalshi, with Fearnley at 27.0% on both Kalshi and Polymarket — implying Wolf at roughly 72.0–74.0% across platforms, a narrow 2.0-point cross-platform spread. The ATP Tour results page confirms why: J.J. Wolf won the match 6-3, 7-5. The outcome has already been decided, meaning these markets are almost certainly pending final resolution rather than reflecting live uncertainty. Fearnley entered as the 8th seed, while Wolf entered as a protected ranking (PR) entrant, and Wolf's dominant straight-sets victory validated the market's pre-match lean toward him. Fearnley's 2026 hard-court form was modest — he carried a 19-17 overall record in 2026, going just 5-8 on hard surfaces.

Nearly all liquidity sits on Kalshi ($1.17M), with Polymarket contributing negligible volume ($5), making Kalshi the sole price-discovery venue here. The cross-platform spread on the Fearnley outcome is effectively zero at 0.0 points, suggesting both platforms aligned tightly on the pre-match assessment — one that proved accurate on the court.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-24; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Completed Match — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/90191?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/88200?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fearnley-vs-wolf.

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