---
title: "Fed rate hike in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-16T20:02:27+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9907026.64
venues: ["Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:06:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026
---

# Fed rate hike in 2026?

Settled · $9,907,027 traded · listed on Polymarket, Polymarket US

## Result

**Yes** won. Settled 2026-09-16.

## About

This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at any point between January 1, 2026 and its December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8–9, 2026. A "Yes" resolution requires at least one rate hike during that window, while "No" resolves only after the Fed's December decision confirms no increase was made. The event has drawn roughly $7.69 million in volume on Polymarket, with a parallel Polymarket US listing showing no activity.

Pricing is essentially a coin flip. The consensus implied probability for Yes sits at 51.5%, versus 50.5% for No, making a hike a marginal favourite. On Polymarket, Yes and No are quoted at 50.0% apiece, while Polymarket US prices Yes slightly higher at 52.0% and No at 49.0%.

The cross-platform spread is modest at about 2 percentage points on each outcome, with Polymarket offering the cheapest Yes entry at 50.0% and Polymarket US the cheapest No at 49.0%. Overall, traders across both venues are treating a 2026 Fed rate hike as roughly a toss-up, with only a slim tilt toward the hike scenario.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-20; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4949?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299720?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.