---
title: "FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner — On Dec 31, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/fide-world-chess-championship-2026-winner-on-dec-31-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-12-30T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2239693.02
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:05:51+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fide-world-chess-championship-2026-winner-on-dec-31-2026
---

# FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner — On Dec 31, 2026

Live · $2,239,693 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket US

## About

This market resolves on the winner of the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship, with each outcome representing a specific player claiming the title. It is listed on both Kalshi, which has drawn essentially all of the roughly $1.88M in volume, and Polymarket US, where trading activity is currently absent.

Javokhir Sindarov is the clear favourite, priced at 70.0% on Kalshi and 72.0% on Polymarket US for a consensus of 70.0%. Gukesh Dommaraju sits in a distant second, but with the widest disagreement on the board: Polymarket US has him at 51.0% while Kalshi prices him at just 30.0%, a 21-point gap that is difficult to reconcile with the two platforms' near-alignment on Sindarov. Notably, the Kalshi prices for Sindarov and Gukesh together already exceed 100%, suggesting the field is not fully normalised there.

The remaining contenders — Praggnanandhaa, Caruana, Esipenko, Wei Yi, Giri, Bluebaum, and Nakamura — all cluster near a 2.5% consensus, each showing Polymarket US quotes of 3.0%–4.0% against Kalshi quotes of 1.0%–2.0%. The cross-platform takeaway: both venues agree Sindarov is the heavy favourite, but they disagree sharply on how much of the remaining probability belongs to Gukesh versus the rest of the field.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-21; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javokhir Sindarov | 70% | 70¢ on Kalshi | 70¢ | 90¢ |
| Gukesh Dommaraju | 30% | 30¢ on Kalshi | 30¢ | 38¢ |
| Hikaru Nakamura | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Fabiano Caruana | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Andrey Esipenko | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Wei Yi | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Anish Giri | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |
| Matthias Bluebaum | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293443?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299723?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/fide-world-chess-championship-2026-winner-on-dec-31-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.