---
title: "Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/florida-cat-4-hurricane-landfall-by-dec-31-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:58:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 21201.43
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:06:08+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/florida-cat-4-hurricane-landfall-by-dec-31-2026
---

# Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?

Live · $21,201 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Yes | 4% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/744899?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/florida-cat-4-hurricane-landfall-by-dec-31-2026.

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