---
title: "France declares state of emergency by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/france-declares-state-of-emergency-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2702356.74
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-02T04:24:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/france-declares-state-of-emergency-by
---

# France declares state of emergency by...?

Live · $2,702,357 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).

Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.

A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.

A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| No | 93% | 93¢ on Polymarket | 93¢ |

## Other markets

- October 21 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/894411?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/france-declares-state-of-emergency-by).

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