---
title: "France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/france-declares-state-of-siege-martial-law-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 336205.33
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:19:18+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/france-declares-state-of-siege-martial-law-by
---

# France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

Live · $336,205 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).

Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.

A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.

A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## November 15

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.5¢ on Polymarket | 0.5¢ |
| No | 100% | 100¢ on Polymarket | 100¢ |

## Other markets

- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/894368?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/france-declares-state-of-siege-martial-law-by).

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.