---
title: "French presidential election: who will advance? — Apr 18, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-apr-18-2026
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-04-18T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2028-04-17T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2329.49
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:52:55+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-apr-18-2026
---

# French presidential election: who will advance? — Apr 18, 2026

Live · kickoff 2026-04-18 00:00 UTC · $2,329 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No.

This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## To Advance

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 85% | 85¢ on Kalshi | 85¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 37% | 40¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ |
| François Hollande | 9% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Attal | — | — | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | — | — | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | — | — | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | — | — | — |
| Jordan Bardella | — | — | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | — | — | — |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | — | — | — |
| Olivier Faure | — | — | — |
| Élisabeth Borne | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/292860?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-apr-18-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.