---
title: "Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/gable-steveson-vs-elisha-ellison
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-11T21:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-12T03:59:59+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-12T00:45:56+00:00
total_volume_usd: 973523.78
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T16:09:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gable-steveson-vs-elisha-ellison
---

# Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-11 21:00 UTC · $973,524 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Gable Steveson** won. Settled 2026-07-12.

## About

Gable Steveson faces Elisha Ellison on the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 prelims card, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at heavyweight. Markets on Polymarket, Kalshi and Azuro cover the moneyline as well as several round-of-finish and over/under prop lines, with Polymarket carrying the bulk of activity at roughly $141k in volume versus small books on Kalshi and Azuro.

Steveson is a heavy favourite to win. Azuro implies a 94.3% chance for the former Olympic wrestler, while Polymarket has him slightly cheaper at 90.1%, giving a cross-platform spread of about 4.2 points on the moneyline. Ellison sits at 12.6% on Azuro and 10.0% on Polymarket. The finish props reinforce the one-sided read: Kalshi prices the fight ending before round 3 at 85.0% and before round 2 at 74.0%, and Azuro's under 1.5 rounds is 84.8% versus over 1.5 at 25.3%. The round total sits closest to a coin flip at the 2.5 line, where Polymarket shows over at 51.0% and under at 49.0%.

Across the three books, the takeaway is consistent: Steveson is a strong favourite expected to finish early, with Polymarket offering a modestly cheaper entry on him than Azuro.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Round of Finish — 2 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Steveson to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Ellison to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22514?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/12963?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6269?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gable-steveson-vs-elisha-ellison.

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