---
title: "Gemini Argon released by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/gemini-argon-released-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18860.36
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:58:02+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gemini-argon-released-by
---

# Gemini Argon released by...?

Live · $18,860 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Gemini Argon" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 9

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| No | 94% | 95¢ on Polymarket | 95¢ |

## Other markets

- October 12 — 2 outcomes
- October 14 — 2 outcomes
- October 16 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/751722?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gemini-argon-released-by.

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