---
title: "Gemini Argon released on...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/gemini-argon-released-on
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 25204.15
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:17:06+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gemini-argon-released-on
---

# Gemini Argon released on...?

Live · $25,204 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 13 | 29% | 31¢ on Polymarket | 31¢ |
| No release by October 31 | 20% | 23¢ on Polymarket | 23¢ |
| October 23 | 9% | 12¢ on Polymarket | 12¢ |
| October 27 | 7% | 7.8¢ on Polymarket | 7.8¢ |
| October 9 | 6% | 10¢ on Polymarket | 10¢ |
| October 30 | 5% | 6¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ |
| October 20 | 4% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| October 31 | 4% | 6.3¢ on Polymarket | 6.3¢ |
| October 12 | 4% | 7.8¢ on Polymarket | 7.8¢ |
| October 18 | 4% | 6.8¢ on Polymarket | 6.8¢ |
| October 11 | 2% | 3.6¢ on Polymarket | 3.6¢ |
| October 16 | 2% | 3¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ |
| October 26 | 2% | 3¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ |
| October 28 | 2% | 3¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ |
| October 10 | 1% | 2.1¢ on Polymarket | 2.1¢ |
| October 24 | 1% | 2¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ |
| October 19 | 0.8% | 1.2¢ on Polymarket | 1.2¢ |
| October 17 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 21 | 0.5% | 1¢ on Polymarket | 1¢ |
| October 22 | 0.4% | 0.8¢ on Polymarket | 0.8¢ |
| On or prior to October 8 | — | — | — |
| October 14 | — | 12¢ on Polymarket | 12¢ |
| October 15 | — | 14¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ |
| October 25 | — | 3¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ |
| October 29 | — | 24¢ on Polymarket | 24¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/751728?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gemini-argon-released-on.

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