---
title: "GIANNINI vs Souza"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/giannini-vs-souza
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-08T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-15T16:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-08T18:50:53+00:00
total_volume_usd: 80228.31
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Tennis"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:17:35+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/giannini-vs-souza
---

# GIANNINI vs Souza

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-08 00:00 UTC · $80,228 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Marjorie Souza** won. Settled 2026-07-08.

## About

This market covers the ITF W15 Rio Claro Round of 32 women's tennis match between Nicole Giannini and Marjorie Souza, scheduled for July 8, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket resolve to the player who advances; walkovers or cancellations before a ball is played resolve at 50-50, while a mid-match retirement resolves to the player who advances. The event is currently live, with roughly $58.9K in total volume, the vast majority sitting on Kalshi.

Marjorie Souza is the overwhelming favourite. Kalshi implies a 99.0% chance she wins, while Polymarket has her at 98.4%, for a consensus of 99.0%. Correspondingly, Nicole Giannini sits at just 1.0% on Kalshi and 1.7% on Polymarket, a consensus near 1.7%. That kind of pricing signals the market treats Souza as a near-certain winner rather than a competitive matchup, likely reflecting a significant gap in form or ranking rather than any specific news captured in the snapshot.

Cross-platform disagreement is minimal: the spread on Souza is only 0.65 percentage points, well inside typical noise for a lopsided market. In short, Kalshi and Polymarket are effectively aligned on Souza as a heavy favourite, with no meaningful arbitrage or divergence between the two books.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-08; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Completed Match — 2 outcomes
- ITF Rio Claro: Nicole Giannini vs Marjorie Souza Set 2 Winner — 2 outcomes
- ITF Rio Claro: Nicole Giannini vs Marjorie Souza Set 1 Winner — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 21.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 22.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 23.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/11102?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/11708?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/giannini-vs-souza.

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