---
title: "GPT-6 released by…?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/gpt-6-released-by
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T17:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-04T22:46:36+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2524036.07
venues: ["Gemini", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-30T05:53:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gpt-6-released-by
---

# GPT-6 released by…?

Settled · $2,524,036 traded · listed on Gemini, Polymarket

## Result

**Yes** won. Settled 2026-09-04.

## About

This market, listed on Polymarket and Gemini, asks whether OpenAI will publicly release a model named GPT-6 (or a clear successor to GPT-5, such as a hypothetical ChatGPT-6o) by December 31, 2025. To resolve "Yes," the model must be broadly accessible to the general public, including via open beta or an open waitlist — closed betas do not count, and half-step labels like GPT-5.5 are excluded. Resolution leans on OpenAI's own announcements plus credible reporting.

The headline outcome is decisively skewed toward "No": both Polymarket and Gemini price the top-line No at 99.0%, essentially treating a GPT-6 release inside the window as a tail event. Polymarket has accumulated roughly $1.55M in volume against Gemini's $32K, so Polymarket is doing most of the price discovery here. Deeper in the outcome ladder — likely reflecting sub-questions about specific release windows or successor branding — probabilities span from the mid-60s down to low single digits, with the widest cross-platform gaps around 6 points on a mid-tier No (Gemini 51.0% vs Polymarket 56.0%) and a mid-tier Yes (Gemini 50.0% vs Polymarket 43.5%).

Across both venues, traders overwhelmingly expect no GPT-6 launch by year-end 2025, with only modest disagreement on the intermediate scenarios.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-24; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- December 31, 2025 — 2 outcomes
- March 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- July 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- August 7, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- August 14, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- August 21, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- August 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- September 15, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- October 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- November 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- December 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299830?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312184?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/gpt-6-released-by).

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.