---
title: "Grok 4.6 released by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/grok-46-released-by
status: ended
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-14T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 263032.57
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-10T23:06:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/grok-46-released-by
---

# Grok 4.6 released by...?

Ended · $263,033 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

Delisted by every venue without a result — this event will not resolve.

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## August 12

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | — | — | 100¢ |
| No | — | — | 0.1¢ |

## Other markets

- August 7 — 2 outcomes
- August 11 — 2 outcomes
- August 13 — 2 outcomes
- August 14 — 2 outcomes
- August 21 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/183260?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/grok-46-released-by.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.