---
title: "Grok 5 released by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/grok-5-released-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 17655.83
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:58:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/grok-5-released-by
---

# Grok 5 released by...?

Live · $17,656 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2.9¢ on Polymarket | 2.9¢ |
| No | 98% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- August 15 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/23439?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/grok-5-released-by.

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