---
title: "Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/highest-temperature-in-san-francisco-on-july-12
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-13T08:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-13T08:40:05+00:00
total_volume_usd: 204161.37
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T17:26:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/highest-temperature-in-san-francisco-on-july-12
---

# Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Settled · $204,161 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**74-75°F** won. Settled 2026-07-13.

## About

This market asks what the highest temperature will be at San Francisco International Airport on July 12, 2026, with each outcome representing a narrow temperature range. Kalshi resolves via the National Weather Service's Daily Climatological Report, while Polymarket resolves using Wunderground's KSFO station data. Because the two platforms slice the temperature range slightly differently (Kalshi uses odd-even pairs like "78° to 79°," Polymarket uses "78-79°F"), direct outcome-by-outcome comparison is imperfect, but the shape of the distribution is broadly similar.

On Kalshi, the favoured bucket is 78°-79° at 35.0%, followed by 80° or above at 29.0%, 76°-77° at 18.0%, and 74°-75° at 15.0%, with cooler and cooler-still outcomes trailing (72°-73° at 7.0%, 71° or below at 6.0%). Polymarket concentrates mass slightly lower, with 74°-75°F leading at 29.5%, 72°-73°F at 19.5%, 76°-77°F at 17.0%, 78°-79°F at 9.6% and 70°-71°F at 5.5%. Extreme heat outcomes on Polymarket (80°F and above, aggregated across 80-81°F through 88°F+) sum to roughly 4.6%, versus Kalshi's 29.0% for 80°+.

The clear cross-platform takeaway is that Kalshi is pricing a materially warmer day in San Francisco than Polymarket, with the two order books disagreeing sharply on the likelihood of an 80°+ reading.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22292?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/20650?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/highest-temperature-in-san-francisco-on-july-12.

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