---
title: "Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/houthis-capture-taiz-by-castle
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4125.27
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-23T23:09:59+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/houthis-capture-taiz-by-castle
---

# Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)

Live · $4,125 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control.

Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify.

Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established.

If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2.4¢ on Polymarket | 2.4¢ |
| No | 98% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/936979?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/houthis-capture-taiz-by-castle.

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