---
title: "How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-low-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-oct-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-30T19:30:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 25324.83
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:26:49+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-low-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-oct-2026
---

# How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Live · $25,325 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.76% or below | 14% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| 4.77% or below | 22% | 36¢ on Kalshi | 36¢ |
| 4.78% or below | 23% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| 4.79% or below | 26% | 40¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ |
| 4.8% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.81% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.82% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.83% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.84% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.85% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.86% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.87% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.88% or below | 42% | 55¢ on Kalshi | 55¢ |
| 4.89% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.9% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.91% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.92% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.93% or below | — | — | — |
| 4.94% or below | 58% | 69¢ on Kalshi | 69¢ |
| 4.95% or below | 64% | 73¢ on Kalshi | 73¢ |
| 4.96% or below | 69% | 78¢ on Kalshi | 78¢ |
| 4.97% or below | 70% | 79¢ on Kalshi | 79¢ |
| 4.98% or below | 73% | 82¢ on Kalshi | 82¢ |
| 4.99% or below | — | — | — |
| 5% or below | — | — | — |
| 5.01% or below | — | — | — |
| 5.02% or below | — | — | — |
| 5.03% or below | — | — | — |
| 5.04% or below | — | — | — |
| 5.05% or below | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/681859?via=md)

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Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-low-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-oct-2026.

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