---
title: "How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? — 2026 elections"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-democratic-senators-will-lose-reelection-in-2026-2026-elections
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 108488.01
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:20:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-democratic-senators-will-lose-reelection-in-2026-2026-elections
---

# How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? — 2026 elections

Live · $108,488 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 96% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Exactly 1 | 3% | 4.8¢ on Kalshi | 4.8¢ |
| Exactly 2 | 3% | 3.1¢ on Kalshi | 3.1¢ |
| Exactly 3 | 1% | 1.7¢ on Kalshi | 1.7¢ |
| Exactly 4 | 1% | 1.5¢ on Kalshi | 1.5¢ |
| 5 or more | 1% | 1.7¢ on Kalshi | 1.7¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2492?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-democratic-senators-will-lose-reelection-in-2026-2026-elections.

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