---
title: "How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — Opening of the 120th Congress"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-democrats-wont-back-jeffries-on-the-first-ballot-opening-of-the-120th-congress
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 314.26
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T15:48:54+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-democrats-wont-back-jeffries-on-the-first-ballot-opening-of-the-120th-congress
---

# How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — Opening of the 120th Congress

Live · $314 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A Democrat counts if the Clerk records them on the first roll call for Speaker as voting for anyone other than Hakeem Jeffries, or as Present. Not Voting does NOT count. If no roll call for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027, the count is 0.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | — | — | — |
| At least 3 | — | — | — |
| At least 5 | — | — | — |
| At least 8 | — | — | — |
| At least 12 | — | — | — |
| At least 15 | — | — | — |
| At least 20 | 48% | 93¢ on Kalshi | 93¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1174872?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-democrats-wont-back-jeffries-on-the-first-ballot-opening-of-the-120th-congress).

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