---
title: "How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — On Nov 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-house-seats-will-democrats-win-in-california-on-nov-3-2026
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 115570.34
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:26:02+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-house-seats-will-democrats-win-in-california-on-nov-3-2026
---

# How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — On Nov 3, 2026

Live · kickoff 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC · $115,570 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 92% | 95¢ on Polymarket | 96¢ | 95¢ | 99¢ |
| 49 | 8% | 9.1¢ on Polymarket | 16¢ | 9.1¢ | 69¢ |
| 47 | 2% | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ | 2¢ | 2¢ |
| 44 | 2% | 0.3¢ on Kalshi | 0.3¢ | 0.5¢ | 2¢ |
| 45 | 2% | 0.3¢ on Kalshi | 0.3¢ | 1.4¢ | 2¢ |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.5¢ on Polymarket | 0.6¢ | 0.5¢ | 4¢ |
| 50 and above | — | 1.4¢ on Kalshi | 1.4¢ | — | — |
| Below 44 | — | 0.1¢ on Kalshi | 0.1¢ | — | — |
| <43 | — | 2¢ on Polymarket US | — | — | 2¢ |
| 43 | — | 2¢ on Polymarket US | — | — | 2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/508?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/228105?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/309947?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-house-seats-will-democrats-win-in-california-on-nov-3-2026).

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