---
title: "How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms-of-the-435-seats-up-in-the-2026-us-house-elections-based-on-media-calls
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-03T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 77962.29
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:25:35+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms-of-the-435-seats-up-in-the-2026-us-house-elections-based-on-media-calls
---

# How many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms? — of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls

Live · $77,962 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Republican designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate, any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Republican designation who caucuses with Republicans is not counted, and one elected as a Republican candidate who later leaves remains counted.

Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No district counts twice.

Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from House composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called.

Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 182 | 89% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 92¢ |
| At least 186 | 83% | 86¢ on Kalshi | 86¢ |
| At least 190 | 77% | 78¢ on Kalshi | 78¢ |
| At least 194 | 67% | 70¢ on Kalshi | 70¢ |
| At least 198 | 55% | 57¢ on Kalshi | 57¢ |
| At least 202 | — | 48¢ on Kalshi | 48¢ |
| At least 206 | 26% | 31¢ on Kalshi | 31¢ |
| At least 210 | 24% | 30¢ on Kalshi | 30¢ |
| At least 214 | 24% | 32¢ on Kalshi | 32¢ |
| At least 218 | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| At least 222 | — | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| At least 226 | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| At least 230 | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| At least 234 | — | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/600456?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-house-seats-will-republicans-win-in-the-midterms-of-the-435-seats-up-in-the-2026-us-house-elections-based-on-media-calls.

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