---
title: "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-large-volcano-eruptions-vei-4-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-04-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1167333.91
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:02:41+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-large-volcano-eruptions-vei-4-in-2026
---

# How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Live · $1,167,334 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.

If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 60¢ on Polymarket | 60¢ |
| 0 | 25% | 36¢ on Polymarket | 36¢ |
| 2 | 8% | 11¢ on Polymarket | 11¢ |
| 3 | 2% | 2.3¢ on Polymarket | 2.3¢ |
| 5+ | 1% | 1.3¢ on Polymarket | 1.3¢ |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5058?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-large-volcano-eruptions-vei-4-in-2026.

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