---
title: "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1046629.44
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:08:05+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-in-2026
---

# How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Live · $1,046,629 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Thresholds

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120 | 99% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ | — |
| Above 140 | 70% | 71¢ on Kalshi | 71¢ | — |
| Above 145 | 19% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ | — |
| Above 150 | 8% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ | — |
| Above 160 | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | — |
| Above 170 | 4% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | — |
| Above 180 | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | — |
| Above 190 | 4% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | — |
| 200 or above | 2% | 2.5¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ | 2.5¢ |
| Above 210 | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | — |

## Other markets

- Ranges — 6 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2462?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5254?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-in-2026.

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