---
title: "How many MPs will vote for the no-confidence motion against Tusk in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-mps-will-vote-for-the-no-confidence-motion-against-tusk-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 100
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:27:53+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-mps-will-vote-for-the-no-confidence-motion-against-tusk-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
---

# How many MPs will vote for the no-confidence motion against Tusk in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Live · $100 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The vote counted is the first Sejm vote held after Issuance on a motion for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk, whoever submits it and whoever it nominates as Prime Minister. Only deputies recorded as voting for (za) in the official Sejm voting record count.

The following do NOT count:
A vote of no confidence in an individual minister
Procedural votes, such as on scheduling or debating the motion
Abstentions, votes against and absences

If no such vote is held before Jan 1, 2027, every market resolves to No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50 | — | — | — |
| At least 150 | 30% | 33¢ on Kalshi | 33¢ |
| At least 180 | — | — | — |
| At least 190 | — | — | — |
| At least 200 | — | — | — |
| At least 205 | — | — | — |
| At least 210 | — | — | — |
| At least 215 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1163956?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-mps-will-vote-for-the-no-confidence-motion-against-tusk-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027).

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