---
title: "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? "
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-republican-house-incumbents-will-not-win-their-primary
status: live
total_volume_usd: 103538.83
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:34:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-republican-house-incumbents-will-not-win-their-primary
---

# How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? 

Live · $103,539 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

Delisted by every venue without a result — this event will not resolve.

## About

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤3 | — | — | — |
| 4-6 | — | — | 97¢ |
| 7-9 | — | — | 5.1¢ |
| 10-12 | — | — | — |
| 13-15 | — | — | — |
| >15 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5711?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-republican-house-incumbents-will-not-win-their-primary.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.