---
title: "How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump? — Before Jan 20, 2029"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-senate-republicans-will-vote-to-convict-trump-before-jan-20-2029
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-01-20T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9613.5
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:47:53+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-senate-republicans-will-vote-to-convict-trump-before-jan-20-2029
---

# How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Live · $9,614 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The first Senate roll-call vote after Issuance on whether Donald Trump is guilty or not guilty on an article of impeachment counts, whichever article is voted on first, and only Republican Senators voting guilty on that vote count.

If no such vote occurs before Jan 20, 2029, the number is 0.

A Senator is a Republican if the Senate lists them as a Republican on the day of the vote. Independent Senators do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans.

The following do NOT count:
The Senate votes of Feb 5, 2020 and Feb 13, 2021
A vote on a motion to dismiss, a point of order, or any other procedural question
A vote on any later article, or in any later impeachment trial of Donald Trump

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 59% | 59¢ on Kalshi | 59¢ |
| At least 2 | 40% | 41¢ on Kalshi | 41¢ |
| At least 3 | 38% | 41¢ on Kalshi | 41¢ |
| At least 5 | 35% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| At least 8 | 25% | 25¢ on Kalshi | 25¢ |
| At least 12 | 23% | 25¢ on Kalshi | 25¢ |
| At least 15 | 17% | 19¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1144491?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-senate-republicans-will-vote-to-convict-trump-before-jan-20-2029).

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