---
title: "How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — of the 35 seats up in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, based on media calls"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms-of-the-35-seats-up-in-the-2026-us-senate-elections-based-on-media-calls
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-03T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 54306.95
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:24:43+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms-of-the-35-seats-up-in-the-2026-us-senate-elections-based-on-media-calls
---

# How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms? — of the 35 seats up in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, based on media calls

Live · $54,307 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted.

All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice.

Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called.

Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 96% | 96¢ on Kalshi | 96¢ |
| At least 11 | 97% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| At least 12 | 96% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| At least 13 | 95% | 96¢ on Kalshi | 96¢ |
| At least 14 | 94% | 96¢ on Kalshi | 96¢ |
| At least 15 | 85% | 86¢ on Kalshi | 86¢ |
| At least 16 | 77% | 78¢ on Kalshi | 78¢ |
| At least 17 | 63% | 65¢ on Kalshi | 65¢ |
| At least 18 | 49% | 51¢ on Kalshi | 51¢ |
| At least 19 | 35% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| At least 20 | 17% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 18¢ |
| At least 21 | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| At least 22 | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/600460?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-senate-seats-will-democrats-win-in-the-midterms-of-the-35-seats-up-in-the-2026-us-senate-elections-based-on-media-calls.

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