---
title: "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-polymarket-2c9dff1d
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 535723.91
venues: ["Kalshi", "Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Crypto", "Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:19:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-polymarket-2c9dff1d
---

# How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Live · $535,724 traded · listed on Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket

## About

This Polymarket-hosted market asks how many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space—defined as an altitude of at least 62 miles (100 km)—during 2026, with mirrored contracts on Kalshi and Limitless. Each outcome corresponds to a range or threshold (e.g., "Above 3," "5–6," "Above 7"), and resolution follows SpaceX's official launch record.

Traders are overwhelmingly confident that at least a handful of flights will clear the Kármán line: the "Above 3" outcome sits at 92.0% on Kalshi, making it the runaway favourite. "Above 4" is close to a coin flip at 58.0%, while "Above 5" drops to 32.0% and "Above 7" falls to 15.0%. On Polymarket's granular bucket ladder, "<5" (40.0%) and "5–6" (38.0%) dominate, with everything beyond seven flights carried at low single digits. Cross-platform spreads are essentially zero on the headline outcomes, though Limitless carries a few thin quotes (e.g., 50.0% on "<5" and "5–6") that reflect its shallow liquidity rather than genuine disagreement.

The cautious distribution tracks the year's actual cadence. Starship was launched five times in 2025, and the twelfth Starship test launch on May 22, 2026, using Ship 39 and Booster 19, was the first test of Version 3. The FAA declared the Super Heavy failure a mishap and grounded Starship pending SpaceX's investigation, which has compressed the window for additional 2026 flights. With only one confirmed space-reaching launch on the board mid-year and the vehicle grounded, markets are clustered around a modest 4–6 flight total.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-07; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Thresholds

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | 94% | 96¢ on Kalshi | 96¢ |
| Above 4 | — | 85¢ on Kalshi | 85¢ |
| Above 5 | 13% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ |
| Above 6 | 8% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Above 7 | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Above 8 | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Above 9 | — | — | — |
| Above 10 | — | — | — |
| Above 11 | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Above 12 | — | — | — |

## Other markets

- Ranges — 8 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2141?via=md)
- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4832?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5178?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-polymarket-2c9dff1d.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.