---
title: "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-states-will-be-in-d4-exceptional-drought-week-of-september-22-2026
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-09-24T13:00:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-24T14:32:20+00:00
total_volume_usd: 52.02
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-05T16:58:53+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-states-will-be-in-d4-exceptional-drought-week-of-september-22-2026
---

# How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?

Settled · $52 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

**10 or more states** won. Settled 2026-09-24.

## About

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/552342?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-states-will-be-in-d4-exceptional-drought-week-of-september-22-2026).

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.