---
title: "How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026? — November 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-many-trump-won-districts-will-democrats-win-in-2026-november-3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-15T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4391.5
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:28:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-trump-won-districts-will-democrats-win-in-2026-november-3-2026
---

# How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026? — November 3, 2026

Live · $4,392 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the 2024 vote totals do NOT add or remove districts.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there is the nominee of the Democratic Party. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. A candidate elected as an independent or without a party nomination does NOT count, whether or not they caucus with the Democrats.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | — | — | — |
| At least 13 | — | — | — |
| At least 16 | 98% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| At least 19 | 98% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| At least 22 | 97% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| At least 25 | 95% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| At least 28 | — | — | — |
| At least 31 | 81% | 85¢ on Kalshi | 85¢ |
| At least 35 | — | — | — |
| At least 40 | 47% | 50¢ on Kalshi | 50¢ |
| At least 46 | 28% | 32¢ on Kalshi | 32¢ |
| At least 52 | — | — | — |
| At least 58 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/330061?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-many-trump-won-districts-will-democrats-win-in-2026-november-3-2026.

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