---
title: "How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027? — from February 2026 to February 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-much-will-aca-marketplace-enrollment-decline-in-2027-from-february-2026-to-february-2027
status: live
kickoff_at: 2027-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-07-01T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1521.89
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:09:47+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-much-will-aca-marketplace-enrollment-decline-in-2027-from-february-2026-to-february-2027
---

# How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027? — from February 2026 to February 2027

Live · kickoff 2027-02-28 00:00 UTC · $1,522 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | — | — | — |
| Above 10% | 83% | 85¢ on Kalshi | 85¢ |
| Above 15% | 63% | 67¢ on Kalshi | 67¢ |
| Above 20% | 33% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| Above 25% | — | — | — |
| Above 30% | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/30300?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-much-will-aca-marketplace-enrollment-decline-in-2027-from-february-2026-to-february-2027.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.