---
title: "How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-october-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9024.77
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:19:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-october-31
---

# How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?

Live · $9,025 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".

A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.

If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.

Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

_From Polymarket's listing._

## 6.5+

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | 92¢ on Polymarket | 92¢ |
| No | 11% | 14¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ |

## Other markets

- 7.0+ — 2 outcomes
- 7.5+ — 2 outcomes
- 8.0+ — 2 outcomes
- 8.5+ — 2 outcomes
- 9.0+ — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/669833?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-october-31.

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