---
title: "Idaho Senate winner? — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/idaho-senate-winner-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 437226.27
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:33:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/idaho-senate-winner-in-2026
---

# Idaho Senate winner? — In 2026

Live · $437,226 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

The Idaho Senate winner market covers the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Idaho, with both Kalshi and Polymarket taking bets on the outcome. Polymarket frames the question by party, resolving to whichever party's nominee wins the general election (inclusive of run-offs), based on calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Kalshi lists the market by candidate and can resolve early on a media-consensus projection.

The Republican side is the overwhelming favourite. On Polymarket, "Republican" is priced at 95.9% while "Democratic" sits at 4.9%, giving a canonical Republican probability of 96.1%. On Kalshi's candidate-level market, incumbent Jim Risch is at 93.0% and challenger David Roth at 2.0%, implying the market sees Risch as by far the most likely Republican nominee and eventual winner. The roughly 3-point gap between the Polymarket "Republican" line (95.9%) and Kalshi's Risch line (93.0%) is consistent with a small residual probability that a different Republican ends up carrying the seat.

Across the two venues, pricing is tightly aligned on the partisan outcome, with Idaho's Senate seat viewed as a near-lock for the Republican column.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-13; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 93% | 92¢ on Kalshi | 92¢ | 94¢ |
| Todd Achilles | 7% | 6.8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ | 6.8¢ |
| David Roth | 0.3% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1879?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6372?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/idaho-senate-winner-in-2026.

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