---
title: "Illinois pension debt in 2026? — Fiscal Year 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/illinois-pension-debt-in-2026-fiscal-year-2026
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-11-01T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T13:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 11356.11
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:19:51+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/illinois-pension-debt-in-2026-fiscal-year-2026
---

# Illinois pension debt in 2026? — Fiscal Year 2026

Live · kickoff 2026-11-01 00:00 UTC · $11,356 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing.

The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System.

Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together. The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $140 billion | — | — | — |
| Above $145 billion | — | — | — |
| Above $150 billion | 11% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| Above $155 billion | 6% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Above $160 billion | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Above $165 billion | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Above $170 billion | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2683?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/illinois-pension-debt-in-2026-fiscal-year-2026.

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