---
title: "India strike on Pakistan by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/india-strike-on-pakistan-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 996825.98
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T06:02:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/india-strike-on-pakistan-by
---

# India strike on Pakistan by...?

Live · $996,826 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 10¢ on Polymarket | 10¢ |
| No | 91% | 92¢ on Polymarket | 92¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- November 14 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312187?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/india-strike-on-pakistan-by.

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