---
title: "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18025937.09
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:52:41+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by
---

# Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Live · $18,025,937 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.

To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1.6¢ on Polymarket | 1.6¢ |
| No | 99% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4889?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by.

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