---
title: "Iran leadership change by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/iran-leadership-change-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 27085897.46
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:16:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/iran-leadership-change-by
---

# Iran leadership change by...?

Live · $27,085,897 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## June 30, 2027

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 23¢ on Polymarket | 23¢ |
| No | 78% | 78¢ on Polymarket | 78¢ |

## Other markets

- March 13 — 2 outcomes
- March 31 — 2 outcomes
- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 15 — 2 outcomes
- August 22 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4886?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/iran-leadership-change-by.

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