---
title: "Iran nuclear test before 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 266516.19
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:58:23+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027
---

# Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Live · $266,516 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |
| Yes | 4% | 4.9¢ on Polymarket | 4.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5323?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027.

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