---
title: "Israel closes its airspace by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/israel-closes-its-airspace-by
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-20T16:51:09+00:00
total_volume_usd: 31159043.63
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:08:22+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-closes-its-airspace-by
---

# Israel closes its airspace by...?

Settled · $31,159,044 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## Result

**Yes** won. Settled 2026-09-20.

## About

This market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by a set deadline, with each dated tranche resolving "Yes" if a broad suspension of commercial aviation across Israel — or a majority of Israeli airspace — occurs by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Narrow ground stops, isolated regional closures, or flight restrictions imposed by foreign airlines or governments do not qualify. Polymarket carries essentially all the volume, with roughly $30.9M traded, while Limitless lists the same question with negligible turnover.

Across the headline tranche, traders overwhelmingly expect a qualifying closure to occur: the "Yes" outcome sits at a consensus 99.1% on Polymarket, with "No" priced at just 1.0%. Later dated sub-markets on Polymarket show "No" pinned at or near 100.0%, consistent with the event being treated as effectively already satisfied for the earliest deadlines and unresolved for later ones. Limitless separately shows a September 30 line at 50.0% and an August 31 line at 50.0%, but on trivial volume.

The cross-platform takeaway: Polymarket, where liquidity is concentrated, treats a qualifying Israeli airspace closure as a near-certainty, while thinly traded Limitless quotes should be read with that liquidity gap in mind.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- May 8 — 2 outcomes
- main — 0 outcomes
- May 24 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 8 — 2 outcomes
- June 9 — 2 outcomes
- June 10 — 2 outcomes
- June 11 — 2 outcomes
- June 12 — 2 outcomes
- June 13 — 2 outcomes
- June 14 — 2 outcomes
- June 15 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 7 — 2 outcomes
- July 15 — 2 outcomes
- July 24 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 15 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/570277?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312169?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-closes-its-airspace-by.

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