---
title: "Israel election: will Likud lose seats?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/israel-election-will-likud-lose-seats
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-28T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 27316.31
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:06:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-election-will-likud-lose-seats
---

# Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

Live · $27,316 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 93% | 94¢ on Polymarket | 94¢ |
| No | 7% | 8.1¢ on Polymarket | 8.1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/7395?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-election-will-likud-lose-seats.

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