---
title: "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8510483.37
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:16:14+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
---

# Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Live · $8,510,483 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## March 31, 2027

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 29¢ on Polymarket | 29¢ |
| No | 76% | 80¢ on Polymarket | 80¢ |

## Other markets

- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes
- December 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312172?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by.

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