---
title: "Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2892484.32
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:57:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by
---

# Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Live · $2,892,484 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.

An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14% | 15¢ on Polymarket | — |
| July 31 | — | — | — |
| October 31 | — | — | — |
| November 30 | — | — | — |
| March 31, 2026 | — | — | — |
| January 31 | — | — | — |
| June 30 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4970?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by.

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