---
title: "Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win? — On Oct 27, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/israeli-legislative-election-how-many-seats-will-likud-win-on-oct-27-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-27T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 10610.62
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:42:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israeli-legislative-election-how-many-seats-will-likud-win-on-oct-27-2026
---

# Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win? — On Oct 27, 2026

Live · $10,611 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Note: If Likud runs in this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by that list will be counted. If Likud merges with another party before the election, all seats won by the merged party will be counted, as will any seats won by a joint candidate list the merged party runs on.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either:
The time for legal challenges has expired
Challenges have been resolved
The member has taken their seat

Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 17 | 95% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| Above 20 | — | — | — |
| Above 23 | — | 65¢ on Kalshi | 65¢ |
| Above 24 | — | — | — |
| Above 26 | 36% | 39¢ on Kalshi | 39¢ |
| Above 29 | 14% | 19¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ |
| Above 32 | 6% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| Above 35 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/231972?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/israeli-legislative-election-how-many-seats-will-likud-win-on-oct-27-2026.

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