---
title: "Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/kai-kamaka-iii-vs-luke-riley
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-11T21:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-12T03:59:59+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-12T03:04:26+00:00
total_volume_usd: 499562.87
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:04:32+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/kai-kamaka-iii-vs-luke-riley
---

# Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-11 21:00 UTC · $499,563 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Luke Riley** won. Settled 2026-07-12.

## About

This market centers on the UFC 329 preliminary featherweight bout between Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley, scheduled for July 11, 2026 on the McGregor vs. Holloway 2 card. Polymarket's main market resolves to whichever fighter is officially declared the winner, with draws, no contests, or cancellations beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi and Azuro list adjacent markets covering round of finish and total rounds props.

Luke Riley is the clear favourite to win at a consensus 67.5%, with Polymarket pricing him at 67.5% and Azuro slightly higher at 70.4%. Kamaka III sits at 32.5% on Polymarket and 35.5% on Azuro — a roughly 3-point gap between platforms on both sides, though within a fairly tight range. On the props side, Polymarket's over/under markets lean heavily toward the fight going the distance, with "Over" outcomes priced as high as 81.5%. Kalshi implies a 21.0% chance the fight ends before round 2 and 29.0% before round 3, while Azuro's Over 2.5 rounds sits at 67.6% and Over 1.5 at 78.1%.

Across platforms, pricing is broadly aligned: Riley is a solid but not overwhelming favourite, and the fight is expected to go deep into the scheduled rounds.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-11; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Round of Finish — 2 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Kamaka III to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Riley to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/22502?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/13173?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/7316?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/kai-kamaka-iii-vs-luke-riley.

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