---
title: "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 75602908.86
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:17:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by
---

# Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Live · $75,602,909 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1.2¢ on Polymarket | 1.2¢ |
| No | 99% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31 — 2 outcomes
- April 15 — 2 outcomes
- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- June 24 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312168?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by.

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