---
title: "Kimi K4 released by…?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/kimi-k4-released-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 22163.6
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T20:28:04+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/kimi-k4-released-by
---

# Kimi K4 released by…?

Live · $22,164 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.

Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1.4¢ on Polymarket | 1.4¢ |
| No | 99% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- March 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/95190?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/kimi-k4-released-by.

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